# Unit V MAT 1304

UNIT V MAT 1304

UnitV MAT 1304

Aninformal probability is critical since it helps in summarizing astate of knowledge. In informal probability, how much knowledge isavailable concerning a given item does not matter. It is feasible fora personal to make an informal probability within a short period,based on the level of confidence present, or one can spend a lot oftime searching for details concerning an item that he/she wants tomake an informal probability about (Tijms,2012). It is valid to assign a probability to something that one doesnot have numbers for, or for something that is underspecified.Therefore, providing an informal probability does not mean that anyrelated mathematical calculation has been carried out.

Anexample of an informal probability entails a situation where one istold to guess the probability of a red car passing in a certain roadthat he is not conversant with. In such a situation, one does nothave knowledge concerning the new road that is, one does not knowwhether there are any cars that pass on the new road. Besides, onedoes not know the number of cars that pass through the road. In thiscase, one may just give a probability based on a guess or a clue thatmay come in his mind. For example, without the need of estimating,one may say that the probability of a red car passing through theroad is “no car will pass on the road”. This is an informalprobability because it is given out of guess work. The person mayhave an assumption that because it is a new road, there will be nored car that will pass through the road. In short, this informalprobability has been used in expressing or summarizing a guess oravailable knowledge that a person has concerning a red car and thenew road.